Is Pakistan heading for Balkanisation?

I was in two minds whether to write this post or not, the reason being that this subject has been the topic of discussion in various fora. But the situation in Pakistan in the last couple of weeks has become so fluid that I thought it would be better to voice my thoughts!

With persistent drone attacks in the NWFP by the US, it was not going to be long before the Taliban asserted itself in Pakistan. This they have done in the SWAT valley, the Switzerland of Pakistan, a scenic and beautiful part of the country – a tourists delight! Just over a third of the Pakistani land mass, if I am not mistaken. SWAT has been handed over to the “good” Taliban – as if there is a ‘good’ and a ‘bad’ Taliban! Ultimately the true colors will start emanating from these leaders and they will start asserting ‘their’ law. In fact the Pakistan Parliament was forced to have a separate law for the SWAT region and the Sharia law has now been enforced. The Pakistani Parliament was arm twisted into accepting the conditions for maintaining peace. Pakistan is unfortunately led by a schizophrenic President, who has never been honest with himself, let alone the Nation!

The Taliban has announced that they will not disarm in the SWAT valley whatever the government says, so willy nilly they have a problem on their hands – and it’s just going to get worse! If the Pakistani government does decide to take action, it would mean a full fledged military confrontation with an armed and dangerous force, who are not used to taking things lying down. A cleric in the SWAT valley has announced that militants will get immunity against accusations of brutal killings and perpetration of violence, through new laws to be introduced. He has also sworn to extend the Sharia to most of the NWFP!
He has claimed that verdicts taken under the Sharia law will not be open to challenge in the superior judiciary. That means we will see human rights going for a toss, minorities will probably end up dead or as slaves of the Taliban. We will have women’s rights trampled and have the women treated as pure meat for the satisfaction of a frustrated people!

In Aurakzai, another part of Pakistan, armed men have entered the houses of Sikhs, demanded money, and on not getting what they wanted have now occupied their homes. The Sikhs are by and large peaceful, but they too are a warrior race, and if they too take up arms to protect their rights, Pakistan will have an expanding militant problem to tackle.

All this points to the steady break up of Pakistan, it is going down a very dangerous path which can only end in disaster – for itself and for the rest of the world. A nuclear armed Pakistan in control of radical Islamists is too scary a scenario to even contemplate. The US who has blindly funded them over the last decade or so, is partly to blame, for this sorry state of affairs. A narrow, selfish and conceited view has led to Pakistan becoming an armed and dangerous foe – it was always untrustworthy - as has been accepted by the US.

The prognoses for Pakistan’s future grows grimmer by the day, as a lawful government elected by the people abdicates its responsibility to govern by giving in to extremist forces. Instead of trying to promote peace and understanding, the government is being arm twisted to have a separate law for an entire region – what use democracy in such a case. In every relationship, compromise is necessary, but it is of paramount importance to know what and how much to give up to get what you need. Just bending over backwards and finding that all you are getting in return is whacks on the bent over backside is just going to be too painful! The Pakistani government has abdicated responsibility and set itself on to the path of balkanization. For India’s sake I hope this does not happen, as a stable and prosperous Pakistan, is the only solution for the region to prosper.