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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Is the US being sucked into the Pakistani quicksand?

Is the US being sucked into the Pakistani quicksand?

I have been reading with some degree of consternation the Obama governments decision to provide economic and “defense” funding to the Pakistani government in spite of credible intelligence that Pakistan is ramping up its nuclear arsenal. For the last decade or so the US and Pakistani military have worked in tandem to enrich themselves at the cost of the US taxpayer. It has been reported in the US press and discussed in the US Senate in the past – but nothing seems to change. The Bush government used to give an annual certification earlier that the funds were being used to fight terrorists, whereas the arms obtained were such that they could be only targeted against India. Not only that, subsequent audits proved that the Pakistani government was duping the US tax payer by providing ridiculous expense statements for re-imbursements which the US kept paying – these audits actually nailed the lie! But apparently the new US President is hell bent on repeating the earlier Presidents mistakes.

There is no denying that Pakistan requires help in pulling it out of the hole that it has dug itself into – but the aid should be with verifiable strings attached – not blinkered aid as is now being offered by the US. The Pakistani aid requirement basket is like quicksand and will just suck the US into it, if it approaches the problem with its eyes closed and hands and legs tied. The humanitarian aid which has just been given –USD 110 million – for the estimated 2 million people who have fled the SWAT valley due to the army fighting the Taliban will hopefully be used for the stated purpose. Pakistani track record on this count is pathetic and so is that of the US in monitoring the end use. Money being entirely fungible it is very easy to divert the aid to activities other than those for which it is given – unless there is a strict monitoring mechanism in place – which is not the case as the US under Obama does not seem to have any interest in doing so. The downside of this is that we in India are likely to be most badly affected if the aid is misused as in the past.

What I personally fear is that in the next four years of Obama’s Presidency, the US will probably get sucked into a deeper and deeper morass as it tries to fight the Taliban and Al Qaida only to find that the money and aid so given was being used to back the protagonists! With the US in recession and in self protection mode, I seriously doubt if it can keep squandering money on a bad bet without verifiable monitoring as it would find itself being sucked deeper and deeper into the Pakistani quicksand. Ultimately they may have to find more money to fight the Taliban and Al Qaida which by then would have been armed with US funds!

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